Levels of greenhouse gases set to soar - ESRI

5 October 2001: Levels of greenhouse gases here will soar over the next ten years, the Economic and Social Resreach Institute predicts in its medium term outlook for the country.

In a major section of its latest report, the ESRI devotes considerable time and effort trying to put a focus on how much energy we will use over the coming decade and the effect that will have on our environment.

It sees the level of emissions rocketing during the period in question as demand for fossil fuels increases by 35 per cent.

This poses a huge dilemma for the Government. Keeping harmful emissions from industry, transport and homes and agriculture to agreed levels under the Kyoto Protocol could cost the economy as much as £2bn, the ESRI estimates.

Not only that but it would also mean replacing half the country's curent electricity generating capacity much earlier than had been anticipated. The burden of cost to meet our Kyoto commitments would be heavy but it could also fall disproportionately on the less well-off, the ESRI says, unless some of the revenue from green taxation is diverted to ensure the less well-off do not suffer any welfare loss.

Energy consumption is forecast to increase significantly in the medium term and will rise by 35 pc up to 2015. The single biggest area of demand will come from the transport and commercial sectors. The ESRI makes it abundantly clear that the economic costs of curbing emissions will be significant right across the economy.

These emissions are likely to be 21 per cent above 1990 levels, and eight per cent higher than the country is allowed under the Kyoto agreement.

Carbon dioxide from homes, transport and industry are the biggest culprits, accounting for over 80 per cent of current emissions.

Transport is the fastest growing sector and will be the biggest source of emissions by 2010. The residential sector currently predominates.

Methane emissions from cattle and nitrous oxide from fertiliser are also identified as problem areas.
Demand for electricity will increase by 160per cent of its 1990 levels, the ESRI also predicts, while demand for gas is likely to be strongest of all fuels with a 270 per cent increase forecast by 2015. Demand for oil will go up by more than 140 per cent.
Use of coal and peat, the biggest emitters of carbon dioxide, will continue to decline, however. Use of coal will drop by 90 per cent and peat by 81 per cent. FCC